{"F": {"ts_code": "300841.SZ", "name": "康华生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "疫苗", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200616", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 50.94, "pe_ttm": 26.851, "pb": 1.8318, "dv_ttm": 0.9815, "total_mv": 661949.5086, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [93.9, 93.5, 93.6, 93.5, 94.2, 92.0], "rev_series": [10.4, 12.9, 14.5, 15.8, 14.3, 11.7], "np_series": [4.1, 8.3, 6.0, 5.1, 4.0, 2.2], "roe_series": [32.0, 35.7, 20.8, 15.5, 11.5, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.2, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 93.5, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 32.3, "roe_median": 15.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.4, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.83, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 9.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 33.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.0, "np_cagr3": -28.4, "rev_yoy": 11.2, "np_yoy": 23.3, "np_vol": 53.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 24.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.9, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["非免疫规划疫苗", 50.0], ["非免疫规划", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.3, "ret_prev2_year": -28.4, "ret_ytd": -29.0, "ret_pivot": 17.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.5, "ret_60": 12.3, "ret_120": -16.6, "ret_250": -39.8, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 60.9}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 89, "hard": 33, "bondness": 40}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 20%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 93.5%,稳定度 99%、ROE 近 5 年中位 15.5%。", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%,分红率 33%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 93.5%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 93.5%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 12% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "康华生物:PE 比行业中位低 5.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}