{"F": {"ts_code": "300839.SZ", "name": "博汇股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "其他石化", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.64, "pe_ttm": 184.6332, "pb": 4.6807, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 364201.2496, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 10.5, 11.5, 8.8, 15.9, 2.3], "rev_series": [9.7, 14.6, 29.7, 27.8, 22.8, 28.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.4, 1.5, -2.0, -3.1, -0.6], "roe_series": [9.2, 5.0, 16.2, -23.5, -54.3, -10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_ttm": -5.9, "fcf_yield": -16.2, "ocf_yield": -7.6, "gm_median": 10.5, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": -2.1, "roe_median": -10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.5, "fix_assets": 8.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.68, "capex_dep": 2.29, "interest_debt": 12.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 64.9, "debt_mv": 35.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 53.1, "np_yoy": 132.2, "np_vol": 211.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["燃料油系列", 18.0], ["燃料油产品", 18.0], ["特种油系列", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 67.0, "ret_prev2_year": -29.5, "ret_ytd": 5.0, "ret_pivot": 115.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.9, "ret_60": -12.9, "ret_120": -7.2, "ret_250": -18.1, "mdd_250": -51.3, "vol_250": 60.8, "pos_52w": 62.8}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 29, "hard": 62, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%,稳定度 58%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.2%(经营现金流/市值 -7.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.5%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 184.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / -13% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "博汇股份:PE 比行业中位高 160.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}