{"F": {"ts_code": "300838.SZ", "name": "浙江力诺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.69, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1144, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 202689.682, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.7, 27.4, 23.9, 24.7, 18.0, 16.6], "rev_series": [4.7, 6.9, 10.1, 11.1, 9.3, 9.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.9, 1.1, 1.1, 0.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [10.7, 10.6, 12.2, 11.1, 1.8, -2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.3, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.5, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": 9.7, "debt_ratio": 46.8, "debt_mv": 19.5, "payout": 73.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.1, "np_yoy": 20.7, "np_vol": 106.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["开关阀", 25.0], ["调节阀", 20.0], ["工艺阀", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.6, "ret_ytd": -3.7, "ret_pivot": 52.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.2, "ret_60": 0.6, "ret_120": -10.3, "ret_250": -4.2, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 39.0, "pos_52w": 67.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 33, "bondness": 61}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 1% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "浙江力诺:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}