{"F": {"ts_code": "300836.SZ", "name": "佰奥智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.75, "pe_ttm": 44.5889, "pb": 7.0751, "dv_ttm": 0.4092, "total_mv": 451842.3, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.2, 27.8, 18.3, 16.5, 25.8, 22.8], "rev_series": [3.4, 4.2, 5.0, 5.7, 4.7, 10.0], "np_series": [0.2, -0.1, -0.5, -0.1, 0.3, 1.0], "roe_series": [3.3, -1.7, -8.3, -2.5, 5.2, 17.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 22.8, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -13.9, "npm_median": -2.5, "roe_median": -1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.08, "capex_dep": 1.07, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 52.0, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 62.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 25.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.3, "np_yoy": 7.2, "np_vol": 256.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 26.6, "fwd_pe2": 18.9, "fwd_g1": 67.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能组装设备及零组件", 50.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0], ["其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.0, "ret_prev2_year": 50.0, "ret_ytd": -10.9, "ret_pivot": 121.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -26.5, "ret_120": -11.5, "ret_250": 18.7, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 63.7, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 44, "hard": 21, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 45 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.6 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -26% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "佰奥智能:PE 比行业中位高 2.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}