{"F": {"ts_code": "300831.SZ", "name": "ST派瑞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "分立器件", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200507", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.94, "pe_ttm": 92.2809, "pb": 4.9393, "dv_ttm": 0.331, "total_mv": 478080.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.2, 45.4, 49.5, 44.6, 63.7, 56.0], "rev_series": [1.2, 1.8, 1.8, 1.2, 1.9, 1.9], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2, 0.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [4.8, 6.8, 6.6, 2.6, 8.0, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 49.5, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 30.0, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.5, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.94, "capex_dep": 10.7, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 8.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 26.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -7.0, "rev_yoy": 32.6, "np_yoy": 48.7, "np_vol": 103.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力电子器件", 47.0], ["电力电子设备", 3.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -31.4, "ret_prev2_year": 31.8, "ret_ytd": 36.1, "ret_pivot": 35.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": -17.2, "ret_120": -22.7, "ret_250": -6.3, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 58.4, "pos_52w": 56.6}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 60, "hard": 25, "bondness": 32}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 92.3 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.5%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 10.70 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 92.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -17% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "ST派瑞:PE 比行业中位高 10.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点。"]}}