{"F": {"ts_code": "300829.SZ", "name": "金丹科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.48, "pe_ttm": 56.0733, "pb": 1.6283, "dv_ttm": 0.5627, "total_mv": 397276.8748, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.4, 19.4, 20.9, 18.9, 20.3, 22.3], "rev_series": [10.3, 14.4, 15.3, 14.2, 15.1, 16.1], "np_series": [1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 0.9, 0.4, 1.1], "roe_series": [12.3, 9.8, 9.0, 5.3, 2.1, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 20.3, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 69.1, "fix_assets": 25.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 8.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 34.8, "debt_mv": 21.6, "payout": 21.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": -4.6, "rev_yoy": 6.3, "np_yoy": -45.8, "np_vol": 93.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["乳酸", 30.0], ["乳酸盐", 9.0], ["副产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.5, "ret_prev2_year": -9.6, "ret_ytd": 6.0, "ret_pivot": 41.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 20.1, "ret_60": 10.3, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": -8.7, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 38.5, "pos_52w": 81.5}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 47, "hard": 100, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 56.1 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%、固定资产占比 69%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 69%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 69%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 10% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "金丹科技:PE 比行业中位高 20.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 34.6个百分点。"]}}