{"F": {"ts_code": "300819.SZ", "name": "聚杰微纤", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "其他纺织", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200312", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.53, "pe_ttm": 146.1966, "pb": 7.5451, "dv_ttm": 0.5277, "total_mv": 664410.3103, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.7, 18.4, 20.1, 23.8, 28.1, 28.5], "rev_series": [3.5, 4.8, 6.1, 6.8, 6.0, 5.8], "np_series": [0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.7, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [0.9, 3.8, 4.5, 8.9, 7.4, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.8, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 7.55, "capex_dep": 6.34, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 27.8, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": 61.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.6, "np_cagr3": 15.2, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": -26.0, "np_vol": 167.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["超细纤维制成品", 19.0], ["消费用超细纤维制品", 19.0], ["工业用超细纤维制品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 176.3, "ret_prev2_year": -15.3, "ret_ytd": 29.3, "ret_pivot": 347.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.7, "ret_60": -28.1, "ret_120": -9.6, "ret_250": 64.5, "mdd_250": -53.8, "vol_250": 78.9, "pos_52w": 51.4}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 49, "hard": 57, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 146.2 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 6.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 146.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 64%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -28% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "聚杰微纤:PE 比行业中位高 123.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}