{"F": {"ts_code": "300817.SZ", "name": "双飞集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.72, "pe_ttm": 47.056, "pb": 3.4635, "dv_ttm": 1.244, "total_mv": 364994.7576, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 29.2, 26.4, 26.5, 25.5, 24.6], "rev_series": [6.2, 9.1, 7.2, 7.5, 8.5, 9.4], "np_series": [0.7, 1.0, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [10.9, 10.9, 6.3, 5.8, 6.6, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.7, "pb_calc": 3.46, "capex_dep": 0.6, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 23.0, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": 69.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.7, "np_cagr3": 1.9, "rev_yoy": 24.9, "np_yoy": 39.5, "np_vol": 24.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["轴承", 23.0], ["滑动轴承", 23.0], ["复合材料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.6, "ret_prev2_year": 4.1, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": 72.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": -6.3, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -30.3, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 70.0}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 52, "hard": 60, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 47.1 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.60 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.1 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -6% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "双飞集团:PE 比行业中位低 3.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点。"]}}