{"F": {"ts_code": "300814.SZ", "name": "中富电路", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 127.16, "pe_ttm": 477.503, "pb": 14.8944, "dv_ttm": 0.0393, "total_mv": 2434225.1516, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.0, 17.7, 14.7, 12.1, 14.2, 15.0], "rev_series": [10.8, 14.4, 15.4, 12.4, 14.5, 18.8], "np_series": [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [17.7, 11.4, 8.8, 2.3, 3.2, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.5, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.89, "capex_dep": 2.51, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 50.9, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.9, "np_cagr3": -32.9, "rev_yoy": 38.0, "np_yoy": 130.1, "np_vol": 38.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 157.0, "fwd_pe2": 68.1, "fwd_g1": 204.0, "fwd_g2": 130.0, "peg": 1.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["印制电路板", 89.0], ["其他业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 129.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.5, "ret_ytd": 72.1, "ret_pivot": 459.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": -20.9, "ret_120": 30.9, "ret_250": 169.7, "mdd_250": -53.5, "vol_250": 89.3, "pos_52w": 61.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 58, "bondness": 37}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 2.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 477.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 170%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 89%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -21% / 31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "中富电路:PE 比行业中位高 412.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}