{"F": {"ts_code": "300813.SZ", "name": "泰林生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200114", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.55, "pe_ttm": 106.8243, "pb": 3.1498, "dv_ttm": 0.6311, "total_mv": 249064.356, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.9, 61.9, 52.6, 49.7, 43.5, 45.4], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.8, 3.7, 2.7, 3.5, 3.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [14.4, 13.5, 13.9, 3.0, 1.8, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 49.7, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -10.3, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.2, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.15, "capex_dep": 2.48, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 15.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 83.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.2, "np_cagr3": -40.9, "rev_yoy": 13.4, "np_yoy": 50.4, "np_vol": 42.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["微生物检测系列", 16.0], ["微生物检测技术系列产品", 16.0], ["无菌生产与污染控制设备系列产品", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.0, "ret_prev2_year": -29.6, "ret_ytd": -16.3, "ret_pivot": 29.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 4.9, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": -31.9, "mdd_250": -57.5, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 51.1}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 59, "hard": 48, "bondness": 56}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 3 亿,占总资产 30%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 49.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.5%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 95%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 30%)和定价权(毛利率 49.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 2.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 106.8 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 5% / -20%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "泰林生物:PE 比行业中位高 64.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点。"]}}