{"F": {"ts_code": "300812.SZ", "name": "易天股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20200109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.92, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.7779, "dv_ttm": 0.1888, "total_mv": 371036.1468, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.1, 43.9, 31.5, 33.4, 30.6, 30.3], "rev_series": [4.3, 4.8, 6.6, 5.4, 3.9, 6.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.4, 0.2, -1.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [7.8, 8.8, 5.2, 2.5, -13.2, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.0, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 4.2, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 31.5, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -9.6, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.78, "capex_dep": 0.31, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 40.8, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 32.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.4, "np_cagr3": -25.0, "rev_yoy": -10.8, "np_yoy": -72.3, "np_vol": 253.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["整机", 49.0], ["平板显示专用设备行业", 44.0], ["半导体设备行业", 5.0], ["配件、维修及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": -47.0, "ret_ytd": -7.2, "ret_pivot": 54.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": -33.8, "ret_120": -30.7, "ret_250": 4.9, "mdd_250": -53.5, "vol_250": 72.0, "pos_52w": 54.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 22, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.5%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -34% / -31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "易天股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点。"]}}