{"F": {"ts_code": "300809.SZ", "name": "华辰装备", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20191204", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.9, "pe_ttm": 26.2632, "pb": 3.2468, "dv_ttm": 0.5021, "total_mv": 605958.688, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.8, 37.1, 33.3, 34.3, 28.5, 29.9], "rev_series": [2.3, 4.1, 3.4, 4.8, 4.5, 5.4], "np_series": [0.3, 0.8, 0.5, 1.2, 0.6, 2.0], "roe_series": [2.4, 5.4, 3.2, 7.8, 3.9, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 33.3, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -12.5, "npm_median": 19.8, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.5, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.25, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 21.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 21.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": 62.4, "rev_yoy": -27.3, "np_yoy": 83.8, "np_vol": 108.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 41.9, "fwd_pe2": 27.8, "fwd_g1": -37.0, "fwd_g2": 51.0, "peg": 0.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["磨床设备", 32.0], ["全自动数控轧辊磨床", 32.0], ["合计特别调整", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.7, "ret_prev2_year": 8.8, "ret_ytd": -37.1, "ret_pivot": 31.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": -22.8, "ret_120": -31.0, "ret_250": -51.4, "mdd_250": -55.9, "vol_250": 54.1, "pos_52w": 49.6}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 52, "hard": 23, "bondness": 16}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 84%,PE TTM 26.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 41.9 倍,PEG 0.82。", "自由现金流 1.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 51%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.3%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.3 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -51%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -23% / -31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "华辰装备:PE 比行业中位低 24.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点。"]}}