{"F": {"ts_code": "300805.SZ", "name": "电声股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20191121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.56, "pe_ttm": 115.8263, "pb": 2.3204, "dv_ttm": 0.3505, "total_mv": 363322.4376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.4, 13.8, 11.1, 12.0, 10.6, 10.6], "rev_series": [32.9, 28.5, 21.7, 22.5, 22.9, 24.9], "np_series": [1.4, -0.3, -1.5, 0.3, 0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [8.6, -2.1, -9.5, 2.2, 0.9, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.0, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.32, "capex_dep": 0.17, "interest_debt": 3.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 30.2, "debt_mv": 8.7, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": -14.6, "np_vol": 174.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["数字零售", 27.0], ["零售终端管理", 16.0], ["品牌传播", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.6, "ret_prev2_year": -0.7, "ret_ytd": -18.6, "ret_pivot": 28.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 9.5, "ret_120": -26.1, "ret_250": -28.1, "mdd_250": -54.6, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 54.7}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 40, "hard": 3, "bondness": 50}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 116 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 30%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 115.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 10% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "电声股份:PE 比行业中位高 17.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}