{"F": {"ts_code": "300803.SZ", "name": "指南针", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20191118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 88.09, "pe_ttm": 257.9083, "pb": 16.9807, "dv_ttm": 0.0898, "total_mv": 5430753.1688, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [84.6, 88.1, 89.1, 85.7, 85.7, 87.4], "rev_series": [6.9, 9.3, 12.3, 9.9, 12.1, 15.4], "np_series": [0.9, 1.8, 3.4, 0.7, 1.0, 2.3], "roe_series": [8.1, 14.7, 22.7, 4.1, 5.1, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.0, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 40.3, "fcf_ttm": 39.3, "fcf_yield": 7.2, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 87.4, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 4.4, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.9, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 7.9, "pb_calc": 16.98, "capex_dep": 2.34, "interest_debt": 155.3, "debt_ebitda": 81.2, "debt_ratio": 84.2, "debt_mv": 28.6, "payout": 21.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": -12.3, "rev_yoy": 22.9, "np_yoy": -12.2, "np_vol": 71.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 158.9, "fwd_pe2": 118.4, "fwd_g1": 62.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 4.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["金融信息服务", 33.0], ["证券服务", 16.0], ["合计特别调整", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.9, "ret_prev2_year": 59.3, "ret_ytd": -32.6, "ret_pivot": 249.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": 12.4, "ret_120": -14.7, "ret_250": -39.7, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 52.0, "pos_52w": 51.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 89, "hard": 3, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 257.9 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 2%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(7 篇研报)前瞻 PE 158.9 倍,次年 118.4 倍,PEG 4.67。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 87.4%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 87.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.34 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 257.9 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 12% / -15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "指南针:PE 比行业中位高 175.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 38.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点。"]}}