{"F": {"ts_code": "300802.SZ", "name": "矩子科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20191114", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.45, "pe_ttm": 65.2775, "pb": 4.4414, "dv_ttm": 0.7344, "total_mv": 666163.6135, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.7, 33.7, 34.3, 30.2, 26.9, 30.3], "rev_series": [4.8, 5.9, 6.8, 5.6, 6.6, 7.7], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 1.3, 0.8, 0.7, 0.9], "roe_series": [9.0, 9.7, 11.4, 5.7, 4.0, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 30.3, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 14.5, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.0, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.44, "capex_dep": 1.45, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 25.9, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 56.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": -11.3, "rev_yoy": 22.2, "np_yoy": 24.2, "np_vol": 27.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["机器视觉设备", 21.0], ["控制线缆组件", 18.0], ["控制单元及设备", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.7, "ret_prev2_year": -3.7, "ret_ytd": 23.7, "ret_pivot": 80.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": 14.5, "ret_250": 11.2, "mdd_250": -42.8, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 84.4}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 53, "hard": 10, "bondness": 44}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 65.3 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.3%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.45 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.3 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / 14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "矩子科技:PE 比行业中位低 12.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点。"]}}