{"F": {"ts_code": "300789.SZ", "name": "唐源电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3731, "dv_ttm": 0.7743, "total_mv": 241522.471, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.1, 50.2, 49.8, 42.5, 36.0, 37.2], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.5, 4.3, 6.4, 6.4, 4.9], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.9, 1.1, 0.7, 0.3], "roe_series": [8.9, 8.6, 10.7, 11.5, 7.2, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 42.5, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 17.4, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.9, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 1.19, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 26.2, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 29.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": -34.0, "rev_yoy": -40.1, "np_yoy": -199.7, "np_vol": 36.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["机器视觉智能检测装备", 32.0], ["大数据智能管控系统", 10.0], ["技术服务及其他", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.0, "ret_prev2_year": -12.9, "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_pivot": 46.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -44.7, "mdd_250": -53.6, "vol_250": 49.5, "pos_52w": 52.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 14, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.5%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -11% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "唐源电气:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}