{"F": {"ts_code": "300788.SZ", "name": "中信出版", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190705", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.58, "pe_ttm": 56.586, "pb": 2.1674, "dv_ttm": 1.3683, "total_mv": 486407.537, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.4, 35.5, 34.2, 34.9, 39.0, 38.4], "rev_series": [18.9, 19.2, 18.0, 17.2, 16.9, 17.0], "np_series": [2.8, 2.4, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 1.3], "roe_series": [15.6, 12.3, 6.2, 5.6, 5.6, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.7, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 35.5, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 11.2, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 31.9, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 51.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": 1.0, "rev_yoy": -3.9, "np_yoy": -36.4, "np_vol": 19.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 29.2, "fwd_pe2": 26.2, "fwd_g1": 94.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 2.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["图书出版", 24.0], ["图书出版与发行", 24.0], ["书店及其他", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.9, "ret_prev2_year": 9.9, "ret_ytd": -6.0, "ret_pivot": 13.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": 6.2, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -22.2, "mdd_250": -52.1, "vol_250": 51.5, "pos_52w": 55.0}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 55, "hard": 0, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 56.6 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.5%、固定资产占比 0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.5%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 11.20 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.6 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 6% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "中信出版:PE 比行业中位高 24.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}