{"F": {"ts_code": "300786.SZ", "name": "国林科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190723", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.47, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4109, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 266271.0073, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.3, 35.4, 37.3, 24.2, 21.0, 19.5], "rev_series": [4.0, 5.0, 2.9, 4.0, 4.9, 5.6], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.2, -0.3, -0.5, -0.2], "roe_series": [10.0, 7.3, 1.4, -2.3, -4.2, -1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 24.2, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": -3.3, "roe_median": -1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.1, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 37.1, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 24.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 38.6, "np_yoy": 5.8, "np_vol": 108.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["精细化工产品", 23.0], ["石化产品", 12.0], ["大型臭氧发生器系统设备及配套", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.2, "ret_prev2_year": -23.0, "ret_ytd": -11.2, "ret_pivot": 37.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": -28.9, "ret_120": -6.9, "ret_250": -11.0, "mdd_250": -48.4, "vol_250": 60.6, "pos_52w": 57.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 61, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 37%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -29% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "国林科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.7个百分点。"]}}