{"F": {"ts_code": "300785.SZ", "name": "值得买", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "门户网站", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190715", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.38, "pe_ttm": 87.3207, "pb": 3.7407, "dv_ttm": 0.5168, "total_mv": 723435.2176, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [67.3, 57.1, 54.0, 48.4, 47.2, 50.2], "rev_series": [9.1, 14.0, 12.3, 14.5, 15.2, 12.9], "np_series": [1.6, 1.8, 0.8, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [13.0, 10.5, 4.7, 4.1, 4.0, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.3, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 50.2, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -13.4, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.6, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 3.74, "capex_dep": 5.87, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 23.0, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 39.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.6, "np_cagr3": 0.6, "rev_yoy": 6.4, "np_yoy": -28.9, "np_vol": 25.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 64.7, "fwd_pe2": 45.9, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 1.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["运营服务费收入", 25.0], ["互联网效果营销平台服务", 8.0], ["互联网效果营销平台收入", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.6, "ret_prev2_year": 55.1, "ret_ytd": -16.6, "ret_pivot": 105.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.1, "ret_60": -4.4, "ret_120": -26.4, "ret_250": -1.0, "mdd_250": -61.6, "vol_250": 73.5, "pos_52w": 43.5}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 61, "hard": 43, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 87.3 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 50.2%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.2%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 5.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 87.3 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -4% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "值得买:PE 比行业中位高 1.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.2个百分点。"]}}