{"F": {"ts_code": "300784.SZ", "name": "利安科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20240607", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.8, "pe_ttm": 59.911, "pb": 2.898, "dv_ttm": 0.9569, "total_mv": 235073.168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.3, 28.1, 32.1, 33.0, 28.2, 27.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.9, 4.7, 5.1, 5.3], "np_series": [null, null, 0.8, 0.8, 0.7, 0.5], "roe_series": [45.5, 29.5, 27.9, 21.0, 11.1, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 28.2, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 14.3, "roe_median": 21.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.3, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.9, "capex_dep": 3.43, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.6, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 36.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": -12.2, "rev_yoy": -2.2, "np_yoy": -46.5, "np_vol": 12.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["注塑产品", 43.0], ["精密注塑模具", 3.0], ["精密模具", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -16.4, "ret_pivot": -6.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": -19.9, "ret_250": -26.1, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 33.5, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 54, "hard": 79, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 59.9 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 3.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.9 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -2% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "利安科技:PE 比行业中位高 13.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.5个百分点。"]}}