{"F": {"ts_code": "300783.SZ", "name": "三只松鼠", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "零食", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.78, "pe_ttm": 26.8503, "pb": 2.2982, "dv_ttm": 0.6544, "total_mv": 714198.4192, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.9, 29.4, 26.7, 23.3, 24.2, 24.4], "rev_series": [97.9, 97.7, 72.9, 71.1, 106.2, 101.9], "np_series": [3.0, 4.1, 1.3, 2.2, 4.1, 1.6], "roe_series": [15.1, 18.9, 5.6, 9.0, 15.3, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 99.9, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 24.4, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.5, "fix_assets": 9.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.3, "capex_dep": 2.8, "interest_debt": 6.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 38.9, "debt_mv": 8.8, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.8, "np_cagr3": 6.4, "rev_yoy": -3.6, "np_yoy": 79.9, "np_vol": 65.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 22.9, "fwd_pe2": 19.5, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["坚果", 27.0], ["综合", 13.0], ["烘焙", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -36.9, "ret_prev2_year": 109.4, "ret_ytd": -22.8, "ret_pivot": 8.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 6.1, "ret_120": -6.4, "ret_250": -36.0, "mdd_250": -44.4, "vol_250": 31.6, "pos_52w": 63.4}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 54, "hard": 28, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.9 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.80 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 6% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "三只松鼠:PE 比行业中位高 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点。"]}}