{"F": {"ts_code": "300781.SZ", "name": "因赛集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.02, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.5539, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 476437.0108, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.9, 38.5, 43.2, 39.8, 31.9, 37.4], "rev_series": [3.2, 6.2, 4.9, 5.4, 6.5, 6.3], "np_series": [0.2, 0.6, 0.3, 0.4, -0.5, -0.9], "roe_series": [2.6, 9.1, 4.8, 6.1, -7.4, -15.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.7, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 38.5, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 4.3, "npm_median": 11.3, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.2, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 12.1, "pb_calc": 8.55, "capex_dep": 0.6, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 26.3, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 13.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": -6.5, "np_vol": 160.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["品牌营销", 37.0], ["红人营销", 9.0], ["数字营销", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.2, "ret_prev2_year": 31.3, "ret_ytd": -16.6, "ret_pivot": 4.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": -21.9, "ret_250": -36.2, "mdd_250": -58.1, "vol_250": 57.6, "pos_52w": 53.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 61, "hard": 15, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.5%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.60 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 5% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "因赛集团:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}