{"F": {"ts_code": "300780.SZ", "name": "德恩精工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190531", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8652, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 285126.48, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.4, 29.4, 34.8, 22.6, 13.2, 11.0], "rev_series": [4.5, 5.8, 7.0, 5.0, 5.1, 6.0], "np_series": [1.0, 0.7, 1.2, -0.1, -1.3, -0.5], "roe_series": [9.7, 6.6, 10.6, -0.7, -11.7, -4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.7, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 22.6, "gm_std": 9.1, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": 7.4, "npm_median": -1.9, "roe_median": -0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.3, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.87, "capex_dep": 0.31, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 44.5, "debt_mv": 21.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -4.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.6, "np_yoy": 14.9, "np_vol": 607.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["机械传动与传动联结件", 30.0], ["非标定制件", 10.0], ["机械非标定制件", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.3, "ret_prev2_year": -27.5, "ret_ytd": 0.8, "ret_pivot": 56.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.1, "ret_60": -24.8, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": -0.2, "mdd_250": -52.8, "vol_250": 72.3, "pos_52w": 55.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 71, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 44%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -25% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "德恩精工:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.5个百分点。"]}}