{"F": {"ts_code": "300777.SZ", "name": "中简科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.63, "pe_ttm": 175.5285, "pb": 2.2461, "dv_ttm": 1.0062, "total_mv": 995058.0725, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [83.9, 77.1, 75.6, 67.7, 63.1, 64.8], "rev_series": [3.9, 4.1, 8.0, 5.6, 8.1, 8.5], "np_series": [2.3, 2.0, 6.0, 2.9, 3.6, 3.1], "roe_series": [21.5, 15.9, 22.8, 7.3, 8.4, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 67.7, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": 48.9, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.1, "fix_assets": 20.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 2.62, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 7.2, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 27.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.0, "np_cagr3": -19.2, "rev_yoy": -61.4, "np_yoy": -123.7, "np_vol": 86.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["碳纤维织物", 33.0], ["碳纤维及织物", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.7, "ret_prev2_year": -4.9, "ret_ytd": -44.2, "ret_pivot": 12.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": -18.7, "ret_120": -43.7, "ret_250": -43.9, "mdd_250": -53.1, "vol_250": 48.6, "pos_52w": 47.7}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 70, "hard": 69, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 175.5 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 67.7%、固定资产占比 43%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 43%、毛利率 67.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(国防军工)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 2.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 175.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -19% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "中简科技:PE 比行业中位高 101.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 35.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.5个百分点。"]}}