{"F": {"ts_code": "300776.SZ", "name": "帝尔激光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏加工设备", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190517", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 106.81, "pe_ttm": 61.1285, "pb": 6.1746, "dv_ttm": 0.3638, "total_mv": 3046589.6945, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.5, 45.4, 47.1, 48.4, 46.9, 46.6], "rev_series": [10.7, 12.6, 13.2, 16.1, 20.1, 20.3], "np_series": [3.7, 3.8, 4.1, 4.6, 5.3, 5.2], "roe_series": [22.9, 18.6, 16.5, 16.0, 16.1, 14.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.9, "np_ttm": 5.0, "ocf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 46.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 28.7, "roe_median": 16.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.3, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.17, "capex_dep": 1.44, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 28.1, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 20.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.4, "np_cagr3": 8.1, "rev_yoy": -12.0, "np_yoy": -6.4, "np_vol": 6.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 45.6, "fwd_pe2": 37.2, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 1.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光伏电池及组件激光设备", 92.0], ["技术服务、维护和其他", 7.0], ["半导体先进封装和下一代显示激光设备", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.7, "ret_prev2_year": 6.2, "ret_ytd": 73.0, "ret_pivot": 164.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.8, "ret_60": -27.0, "ret_120": 29.8, "ret_250": 45.3, "mdd_250": -55.8, "vol_250": 73.2, "pos_52w": 49.7}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 66, "hard": 10, "bondness": 15}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 61.1 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(15 篇研报)前瞻 PE 45.6 倍,次年 37.2 倍,PEG 1.98。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 46.9%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.9%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 61.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 45%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -27% / 30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "帝尔激光:PE 比行业中位高 20.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.3个百分点。"]}}