{"F": {"ts_code": "300772.SZ", "name": "运达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电整机", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.26, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1446, "dv_ttm": 0.6479, "total_mv": 728620.9702, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.8, 16.8, 17.8, 13.7, 9.0, 7.6], "rev_series": [114.8, 160.4, 173.8, 187.3, 222.0, 294.0], "np_series": [1.7, 4.9, 6.2, 4.1, 4.6, 3.4], "roe_series": [10.5, 21.8, 16.3, 8.2, 8.5, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 323.3, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -20.3, "fcf_ttm": -53.1, "fcf_yield": -72.8, "ocf_yield": -27.9, "gm_median": 13.7, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": 3.9, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 98.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.82, "capex_dep": 10.47, "interest_debt": 77.0, "debt_ebitda": 36.1, "debt_ratio": 83.1, "debt_mv": 105.7, "payout": 9.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.1, "np_cagr3": -18.0, "rev_yoy": 26.9, "np_yoy": -273.4, "np_vol": 79.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 10.5, "fwd_pe2": 5.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 109.0, "peg": 0.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["风电机组", 45.0], ["新能源EPC总承包", 2.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.8, "ret_prev2_year": 25.3, "ret_ytd": -51.3, "ret_pivot": 1.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -26.1, "ret_60": -24.8, "ret_120": -55.7, "ret_250": -45.1, "mdd_250": -57.0, "vol_250": 48.0, "pos_52w": 43.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 30, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 83%,有息负债 77 亿,经营现金流/市值 -27.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -72.8%(经营现金流/市值 -27.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 10.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -26% / -25% / -56%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "运达股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点。"]}}