{"F": {"ts_code": "300771.SZ", "name": "智莱科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.71, "pe_ttm": 24.5985, "pb": 1.414, "dv_ttm": 1.6724, "total_mv": 281040.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.3, 32.6, 31.2, 29.9, 27.8, 31.9], "rev_series": [10.3, 12.6, 8.7, 4.1, 4.5, 6.0], "np_series": [2.4, 1.7, 1.7, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [14.3, 9.3, 8.9, 1.2, 2.0, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -17.1, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.41, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 16.1, "debt_mv": 4.7, "payout": 88.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.7, "np_cagr3": -21.7, "rev_yoy": 27.7, "np_yoy": 124.8, "np_vol": 68.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["智能快件箱类设备", 16.0], ["智能快件箱", 16.0], ["智能换电柜类设备", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.4, "ret_prev2_year": -2.4, "ret_ytd": -23.5, "ret_pivot": 43.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": 6.6, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -13.2, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 41.0, "pos_52w": 68.9}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 53, "hard": 12, "bondness": 65}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.6 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%、固定资产占比 8%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.2%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 7% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "智莱科技:PE 比行业中位低 27.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点。"]}}