{"F": {"ts_code": "300769.SZ", "name": "德方纳米", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.62, "pe_ttm": 461.5141, "pb": 2.1531, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1166142.8722, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.4, 28.9, 20.0, 0.2, -4.6, 1.3], "rev_series": [9.4, 48.4, 225.6, 169.7, 76.1, 87.2], "np_series": [-0.3, 8.0, 23.8, -16.4, -13.4, -8.2], "roe_series": [-1.9, 31.0, 40.1, -20.5, -21.1, -15.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 152.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -12.4, "fcf_ttm": -18.0, "fcf_yield": -15.4, "ocf_yield": -10.6, "gm_median": 1.3, "gm_std": 13.0, "gm_stab": -8.96, "gm_chg_2022": 9.7, "npm_median": -11.7, "roe_median": -15.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.6, "fix_assets": 71.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 80.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 70.0, "debt_mv": 69.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -27.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 167.9, "np_yoy": 216.6, "np_vol": 1165.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 12.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": 3646.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["磷酸盐系正极材料", 49.0], ["合计特别调整", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.3, "ret_prev2_year": -39.6, "ret_ytd": -5.4, "ret_pivot": 80.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.4, "ret_60": -31.8, "ret_120": -10.1, "ret_250": 11.3, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 60.2, "pos_52w": 51.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 12, "hard": 52, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 1.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.3%,稳定度 -896%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.4%(经营现金流/市值 -10.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.3%,稳定度 -896%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 461.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -32% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "德方纳米:PE 比行业中位高 425.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}