{"F": {"ts_code": "300767.SZ", "name": "震安科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.9, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4121, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 522190.179, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.7, 41.7, 42.2, 34.6, 31.6, 30.1], "rev_series": [5.8, 6.7, 9.0, 6.9, 4.2, 5.3], "np_series": [1.6, 0.9, 1.0, -0.4, -1.4, -1.2], "roe_series": [15.5, 7.3, 6.9, -2.6, -8.8, -7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 34.6, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -10.4, "npm_median": -5.9, "roe_median": -2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.9, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 3.41, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 26.8, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -16.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -34.5, "np_yoy": 129.3, "np_vol": 99.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 945.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["传统隔震产品", 18.0], ["传统减震产品", 12.0], ["震振控制产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 130.6, "ret_prev2_year": -48.1, "ret_ytd": -9.1, "ret_pivot": 135.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": -1.5, "ret_120": -7.9, "ret_250": -24.5, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 57.9, "pos_52w": 72.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 38, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 27%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.6%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -2% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "震安科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点。"]}}