{"F": {"ts_code": "300763.SZ", "name": "锦浪科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "逆变器", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 58.3, "pe_ttm": 40.9972, "pb": 2.4744, "dv_ttm": 0.3436, "total_mv": 2312713.194, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.8, 28.7, 33.5, 32.4, 31.6, 34.5], "rev_series": [20.8, 33.1, 58.9, 61.0, 65.4, 69.5], "np_series": [3.2, 4.7, 10.6, 7.8, 6.9, 7.4], "roe_series": [23.6, 23.3, 32.7, 13.0, 8.6, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 70.4, "np_ttm": 5.6, "ocf_ttm": 21.3, "fcf_ttm": 19.3, "fcf_yield": 8.3, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 32.4, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 12.8, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 67.1, "fix_assets": 134.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.46, "capex_dep": 0.25, "interest_debt": 67.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 53.0, "debt_mv": 29.3, "payout": 10.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.7, "np_cagr3": -11.2, "rev_yoy": 2.3, "np_yoy": -29.7, "np_vol": 53.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 16.5, "fwd_pe2": 11.7, "fwd_g1": 148.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 0.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["储能逆变器", 19.0], ["并网逆变器", 12.0], ["户用光伏发电系统", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.4, "ret_prev2_year": -12.5, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": -0.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": -36.8, "ret_120": -43.4, "ret_250": -13.1, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 62.7, "pos_52w": 48.4}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 58, "hard": 100, "bondness": 31}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 134 亿,占总资产 67%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 8.3%,股息率 0.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 88%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 67%)和定价权(毛利率 32.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 67%,资本开支/折旧 0.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.0 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -37% / -43%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "锦浪科技:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 44.5个百分点。"]}}