{"F": {"ts_code": "300761.SZ", "name": "立华股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "肉鸡养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20190218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.45, "pe_ttm": 50.8414, "pb": 1.9774, "dv_ttm": 1.6142, "total_mv": 1815393.5085, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.6, 7.9, 14.4, 4.8, 15.9, 11.0], "rev_series": [86.2, 111.3, 144.5, 153.5, 177.2, 187.3], "np_series": [2.5, -4.0, 8.9, -4.4, 15.2, 5.8], "roe_series": [3.8, -6.1, 12.1, -5.4, 18.2, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 195.0, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": 18.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 11.0, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": 5.8, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.8, "fix_assets": 81.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 35.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 43.8, "debt_mv": 19.7, "payout": 47.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.0, "np_cagr3": -13.4, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": -148.3, "np_vol": 275.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 25.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 102.0, "fwd_g2": 142.0, "peg": 0.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["鸡收入", 41.0], ["鸡", 41.0], ["猪收入", 9.0], ["猪", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.2, "ret_prev2_year": -6.1, "ret_ytd": 4.6, "ret_pivot": 29.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.4, "ret_60": 20.1, "ret_120": -1.0, "ret_250": 9.9, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 42.4, "pos_52w": 87.2}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 39, "hard": 80, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 50%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%,稳定度 63%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 10.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 20% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "立华股份:PE 比行业中位高 11.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}