{"F": {"ts_code": "300756.SZ", "name": "金马游乐", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20181228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.3, "pe_ttm": 73.6797, "pb": 4.5086, "dv_ttm": 0.2829, "total_mv": 668531.625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.7, 47.7, 36.9, 35.4, 31.0, 36.5], "rev_series": [3.8, 5.0, 4.1, 7.4, 5.8, 6.9], "np_series": [-0.2, 0.2, -0.2, 0.5, 0.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [-1.9, 2.1, -2.3, 3.8, 0.5, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 36.5, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.3, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.51, "capex_dep": 4.18, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 36.1, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 32.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 25.5, "np_yoy": 28.7, "np_vol": 412.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["游乐设施类", 30.0], ["游乐装备", 30.0], ["运营支持服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 285.6, "ret_prev2_year": -7.6, "ret_ytd": -25.3, "ret_pivot": 275.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": 0.6, "ret_120": 0.1, "ret_250": 21.4, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 54, "hard": 48, "bondness": 17}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 7 亿,占总资产 30%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 36.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.6%,股息率 0.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 93%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 30%)和定价权(毛利率 36.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 4.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 1% / 0%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "金马游乐:PE 比行业中位高 31.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点。"]}}