{"F": {"ts_code": "300752.SZ", "name": "隆利科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20181130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.02, "pe_ttm": 88.3521, "pb": 2.7865, "dv_ttm": 0.6422, "total_mv": 355802.189, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.4, 5.9, 6.4, 13.1, 18.4, 15.6], "rev_series": [20.1, 19.8, 12.5, 10.3, 13.2, 15.7], "np_series": [0.4, -1.1, -3.3, 0.5, 1.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [5.1, -10.9, -35.6, 4.9, 9.3, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.0, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.79, "capex_dep": 3.55, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 46.5, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 36.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.9, "np_yoy": -46.5, "np_vol": 185.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["背光显示模组", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.4, "ret_prev2_year": -6.5, "ret_ytd": -15.0, "ret_pivot": 18.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": -16.5, "ret_120": -20.6, "ret_250": -43.1, "mdd_250": -53.2, "vol_250": 52.8, "pos_52w": 58.3}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 32, "hard": 50, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 3.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -16% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "隆利科技:PE 比行业中位高 26.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}