{"F": {"ts_code": "300751.SZ", "name": "迈为股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏加工设备", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20181109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 191.92, "pe_ttm": 92.308, "pb": 6.6541, "dv_ttm": 0.5201, "total_mv": 5352683.3456, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.0, 38.3, 38.3, 30.5, 28.1, 38.6], "rev_series": [22.9, 31.0, 41.5, 80.9, 98.3, 81.5], "np_series": [3.9, 6.4, 8.6, 9.1, 9.3, 7.2], "roe_series": [25.4, 16.9, 14.0, 13.5, 12.6, 9.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 68.5, "np_ttm": 5.8, "ocf_ttm": 20.2, "fcf_ttm": 13.9, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 38.3, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 4.3, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.7, "fix_assets": 34.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.65, "capex_dep": 2.56, "interest_debt": 63.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.1, "debt_ratio": 65.8, "debt_mv": 11.9, "payout": 33.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 25.3, "np_cagr3": -5.8, "rev_yoy": -31.0, "np_yoy": -36.0, "np_vol": 29.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 65.2, "fwd_pe2": 44.3, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 1.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["成套设备", 28.0], ["太阳能电池成套生产设备", 28.0], ["单机设备", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 98.4, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": -6.6, "ret_pivot": 186.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.7, "ret_60": -9.6, "ret_120": -22.2, "ret_250": 130.1, "mdd_250": -60.5, "vol_250": 89.3, "pos_52w": 53.0}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 61, "hard": 24, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 92.3 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(16 篇研报)前瞻 PE 65.2 倍,次年 44.3 倍,PEG 1.39。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.3%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 92.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 130%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 89%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -10% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "迈为股份:PE 比行业中位高 51.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点。"]}}