{"F": {"ts_code": "300750.SZ", "name": "宁德时代", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 351.0, "pe_ttm": 19.1058, "pb": 4.281, "dv_ttm": 2.3669, "total_mv": 162399641.04, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 26.3, 20.3, 22.9, 24.4, 26.3], "rev_series": [503.2, 1303.6, 3285.9, 4009.2, 3620.1, 4237.0], "np_series": [55.8, 159.3, 307.3, 441.2, 507.4, 722.0], "roe_series": [10.9, 21.4, 24.7, 24.4, 22.8, 24.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5217.3, "np_ttm": 850.0, "ocf_ttm": 1347.5, "fcf_ttm": 875.5, "fcf_yield": 5.4, "ocf_yield": 8.3, "gm_median": 24.4, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": 13.7, "roe_median": 24.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.8, "fix_assets": 2024.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 4.28, "capex_dep": 1.73, "interest_debt": 1490.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 63.7, "debt_mv": 9.2, "payout": 49.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.8, "np_cagr3": 32.9, "rev_yoy": 54.8, "np_yoy": 42.0, "np_vol": 60.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 40, "fwd_pe": 16.9, "fwd_pe2": 13.6, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["动力电池系统", 55.0], ["储能系统", 15.0], ["储能电池系统", 15.0], ["电池材料及回收、矿产资源", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.1, "ret_prev2_year": 75.3, "ret_ytd": -2.2, "ret_pivot": 102.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.2, "ret_60": -7.8, "ret_120": -9.7, "ret_250": 24.5, "mdd_250": -24.3, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 76.5}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 48, "hard": 28, "bondness": 46}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 42%,PE TTM 19.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.9 倍,PEG 0.68。", "自由现金流 875.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 25%(40 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.73 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.1 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -8% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "宁德时代:PE 比行业中位低 16.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点。"]}}