{"F": {"ts_code": "300749.SZ", "name": "顶固集创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "定制家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.62, "pe_ttm": 48.4382, "pb": 7.7686, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 525644.0028, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.7, 32.8, 31.1, 27.9, 22.7, 25.5], "rev_series": [8.7, 13.0, 10.7, 12.8, 10.3, 8.5], "np_series": [0.2, -0.8, 0.2, 0.2, -1.8, 0.1], "roe_series": [2.7, -11.3, 3.5, 2.7, -27.5, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.9, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.77, "capex_dep": 0.22, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 8.1, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -7.6, "np_cagr3": -28.8, "rev_yoy": -36.2, "np_yoy": 1678.1, "np_vol": 428.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["定制衣柜及配套家居", 23.0], ["定制衣柜及其配套家居产品", 23.0], ["精品五金", 22.0], ["五金", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.3, "ret_prev2_year": -33.4, "ret_ytd": 112.3, "ret_pivot": 390.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.9, "ret_60": 20.3, "ret_120": -32.1, "ret_250": 180.0, "mdd_250": -58.9, "vol_250": 73.5, "pos_52w": 67.7}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 49, "hard": 46, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 48 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 0.22 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.4 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 180%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 20% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "顶固集创:PE 比行业中位高 20.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点。"]}}