{"F": {"ts_code": "300747.SZ", "name": "锐科激光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "激光设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180625", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.69, "pe_ttm": 87.7089, "pb": 6.1386, "dv_ttm": 0.1809, "total_mv": 2172830.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.1, 29.4, 18.1, 26.0, 20.5, 20.4], "rev_series": [23.2, 34.1, 31.9, 36.8, 32.0, 34.7], "np_series": [3.0, 4.7, 0.4, 2.2, 1.3, 1.6], "roe_series": [12.2, 17.0, 1.3, 6.9, 4.1, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.1, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 20.5, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -11.0, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.1, "fix_assets": 10.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 6.14, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 33.4, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 24.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.8, "np_cagr3": 58.2, "rev_yoy": 14.8, "np_yoy": 117.5, "np_vol": 185.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 82.1, "fwd_pe2": 58.2, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 2.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["连续光纤激光器", 41.0], ["脉冲光纤激光器", 4.0], ["其他业务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.6, "ret_prev2_year": -18.2, "ret_ytd": 43.5, "ret_pivot": 179.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.2, "ret_60": -20.8, "ret_120": 23.1, "ret_250": 22.4, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 61.5, "pos_52w": 65.4}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 42, "hard": 31, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 87.7 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(8 篇研报)前瞻 PE 82.1 倍,次年 58.2 倍,PEG 2.00。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 87.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -21% / 23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "锐科激光:PE 比行业中位高 10.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点。"]}}