{"F": {"ts_code": "300740.SZ", "name": "水羊股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "化妆品", "sw3": "品牌化妆品", "ind": "化妆品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.59, "pe_ttm": 88.6039, "pb": 4.37, "dv_ttm": 0.3893, "total_mv": 993739.2957, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.2, 52.1, 53.1, 58.4, 63.0, 65.5], "rev_series": [37.2, 50.1, 47.2, 44.9, 42.4, 49.8], "np_series": [1.4, 2.4, 1.2, 2.9, 1.1, 1.5], "roe_series": [10.9, 16.0, 7.5, 15.4, 5.3, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.9, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_yield": 5.5, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 58.4, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 3.9, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.3, "fix_assets": 9.1, "goodwill_ratio": 10.7, "pb_calc": 4.26, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 15.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 48.2, "debt_mv": 15.2, "payout": 19.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": 5.9, "rev_yoy": 0.4, "np_yoy": -29.4, "np_vol": 73.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 44.1, "fwd_pe2": 33.7, "fwd_g1": 101.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 1.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["水乳膏霜", 40.0], ["面膜", 8.0], ["合计特别调整", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.9, "ret_prev2_year": -20.3, "ret_ytd": -4.8, "ret_pivot": 132.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.8, "ret_60": 5.4, "ret_120": 8.7, "ret_250": 5.2, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 55.3, "pos_52w": 83.7}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 71, "hard": 32, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 88.6 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 58.4%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.4%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 5% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化妆品」16 家中位:PE 31.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 53.1% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 50%。", "水羊股份:PE 比行业中位高 57.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}