{"F": {"ts_code": "300738.SZ", "name": "奥飞数据", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信应用增值服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180119", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.06, "pe_ttm": 81.9998, "pb": 5.3884, "dv_ttm": 0.0698, "total_mv": 1976319.3825, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.5, 29.2, 28.2, 27.2, 26.4, 34.7], "rev_series": [8.4, 12.0, 11.0, 13.3, 21.6, 25.2], "np_series": [1.6, 1.4, 1.7, 1.4, 1.2, 1.3], "roe_series": [15.8, 10.1, 10.0, 5.9, 3.9, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.4, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 18.2, "fcf_ttm": -19.2, "fcf_yield": -9.7, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 28.2, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 10.9, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.0, "fix_assets": 108.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 5.31, "capex_dep": 4.78, "interest_debt": 90.9, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 76.9, "debt_mv": 46.0, "payout": 10.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 32.0, "np_cagr3": -7.2, "rev_yoy": 27.9, "np_yoy": 123.6, "np_vol": 11.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 50.7, "fwd_pe2": 38.0, "fwd_g1": 62.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["IDC服务", 74.0], ["其他互联网综合服务", 16.0], ["合计特别调整", 5.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.7, "ret_prev2_year": 37.3, "ret_ytd": 8.6, "ret_pivot": 123.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.2, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -11.5, "ret_250": -14.6, "mdd_250": -32.7, "vol_250": 57.9, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 52, "hard": 100, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 82.0 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%、固定资产占比 66%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.7%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 4.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 6% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "奥飞数据:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 53.9个百分点。"]}}