{"F": {"ts_code": "300737.SZ", "name": "科顺股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "防水材料", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.85, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3685, "dv_ttm": 2.2675, "total_mv": 538474.3055, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.9, 28.5, 21.2, 21.2, 21.8, 24.2], "rev_series": [62.4, 77.7, 76.6, 79.4, 68.3, 60.4], "np_series": [8.9, 6.7, 1.8, -3.4, 0.4, -5.4], "roe_series": [24.4, 14.7, 3.4, -6.3, 0.9, -12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 57.4, "np_ttm": -5.1, "ocf_ttm": 10.8, "fcf_ttm": 9.8, "fcf_yield": 18.2, "ocf_yield": 20.0, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -15.7, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.4, "fix_assets": 21.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.36, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 55.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 69.7, "debt_mv": 102.4, "payout": 950.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -7.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -9.4, "np_yoy": 43.5, "np_vol": 630.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 19.0, "fwd_pe2": 12.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 48.0, "peg": 0.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["防水卷材", 22.0], ["防水涂料", 13.0], ["防水工程施工", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.7, "ret_prev2_year": -17.5, "ret_ytd": -10.8, "ret_pivot": 35.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.5, "ret_60": -31.2, "ret_120": -25.3, "ret_250": -11.3, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 62.2, "pos_52w": 54.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 26, "bondness": 72}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 70%,有息负债 55 亿,经营现金流/市值 20.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 18.2%(经营现金流/市值 20.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -31% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "科顺股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点。"]}}