{"F": {"ts_code": "300735.SZ", "name": "光弘科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171229", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.27, "pe_ttm": 63.695, "pb": 2.8284, "dv_ttm": 1.2974, "total_mv": 1559165.5685, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 20.5, 18.6, 17.5, 12.8, 12.2], "rev_series": [22.9, 36.0, 41.8, 54.0, 68.8, 89.9], "np_series": [3.2, 3.5, 3.0, 4.0, 2.8, 2.9], "roe_series": [10.0, 8.1, 6.7, 8.4, 5.6, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 101.5, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 23.2, "fcf_ttm": 10.4, "fcf_yield": 6.6, "ocf_yield": 14.9, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.3, "fix_assets": 36.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 2.83, "capex_dep": 2.0, "interest_debt": 20.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 43.0, "debt_mv": 13.2, "payout": 65.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 29.1, "np_cagr3": -1.4, "rev_yoy": 34.7, "np_yoy": -44.3, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 42.8, "fwd_pe2": 35.0, "fwd_g1": 49.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["消费电子类", 23.0], ["汽车电子类", 20.0], ["合计特别调整", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.5, "ret_prev2_year": 20.6, "ret_ytd": -21.7, "ret_pivot": 3.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.9, "ret_60": 3.2, "ret_120": -14.8, "ret_250": -37.4, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 60.6}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 41, "hard": 53, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.6%(经营现金流/市值 14.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.00 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 3% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "光弘科技:PE 比行业中位高 17.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}