{"F": {"ts_code": "300733.SZ", "name": "西菱动力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20180116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.73, "pe_ttm": 55.0941, "pb": 3.0619, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 544534.9579, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.7, 21.6, 19.9, 9.4, 15.4, 17.1], "rev_series": [5.1, 7.5, 11.1, 15.2, 17.5, 19.3], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, 0.4, -1.1, 0.5, 0.9], "roe_series": [0.7, 1.6, 2.5, -6.5, 3.2, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.9, "fix_assets": 13.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 3.06, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 47.0, "debt_mv": 8.9, "payout": 29.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 20.3, "np_cagr3": 34.5, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": 15.7, "np_vol": 202.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车零配件", 87.0], ["航空零部件", 10.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["合计特别调整", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.7, "ret_prev2_year": -3.1, "ret_ytd": -5.0, "ret_pivot": 96.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": 5.6, "ret_250": -18.7, "mdd_250": -33.2, "vol_250": 45.0, "pos_52w": 83.0}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 44, "hard": 64, "bondness": 16}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -3% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "西菱动力:PE 比行业中位高 24.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点。"]}}