{"F": {"ts_code": "300731.SZ", "name": "科创新源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.0, "pe_ttm": 523.8207, "pb": 12.9214, "dv_ttm": 0.0635, "total_mv": 797780.7, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.0, 29.3, 23.7, 25.4, 20.9, 19.2], "rev_series": [3.1, 5.7, 5.2, 5.6, 9.6, 11.6], "np_series": [0.3, -0.1, -0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [4.6, -2.2, -4.5, 4.2, 2.8, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 23.7, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -25.3, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.2, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 5.9, "pb_calc": 12.92, "capex_dep": 1.46, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 50.9, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 30.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.4, "np_yoy": -115.8, "np_vol": 129.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 53.9, "fwd_pe2": 23.4, "fwd_g1": 871.0, "fwd_g2": 130.0, "peg": 0.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["散热金属结构件", 29.0], ["汽车密封条", 11.0], ["绝缘防火材料", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 161.4, "ret_prev2_year": 3.6, "ret_ytd": 12.1, "ret_pivot": 368.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.7, "ret_60": -20.7, "ret_120": -12.1, "ret_250": 23.8, "mdd_250": -58.0, "vol_250": 78.8, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 20, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 524 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 51%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 523.8 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / -21% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "科创新源:PE 比行业中位高 494.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.8个百分点。"]}}