{"F": {"ts_code": "300729.SZ", "name": "乐歌股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.92, "pe_ttm": 24.567, "pb": 1.0499, "dv_ttm": 2.7473, "total_mv": 373041.8328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.7, 39.7, 34.4, 36.5, 29.1, 27.3], "rev_series": [19.4, 28.7, 32.1, 39.0, 56.7, 67.1], "np_series": [2.2, 1.8, 2.2, 6.3, 3.4, 2.6], "roe_series": [23.9, 12.6, 10.0, 23.1, 10.0, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 67.5, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 11.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_yield": 8.0, "ocf_yield": 29.7, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -12.3, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.7, "fix_assets": 36.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 5.81, "interest_debt": 46.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 61.7, "debt_mv": 124.5, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.9, "np_cagr3": 5.9, "rev_yoy": 1.1, "np_yoy": -83.4, "np_vol": 85.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 16.6, "fwd_pe2": 12.6, "fwd_g1": 48.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["仓储物流服务", 18.0], ["人体工学系列产品", 16.0], ["线性驱动", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.9, "ret_prev2_year": -9.6, "ret_ytd": -18.0, "ret_pivot": -17.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": 6.1, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -26.5, "mdd_250": -39.7, "vol_250": 26.0, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 51, "hard": 62, "bondness": 40}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 36 亿,占总资产 39%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 8.0%,股息率 2.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 80%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 39%)和定价权(毛利率 34.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.0%(经营现金流/市值 29.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 5.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 6% / -17%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "乐歌股份:PE 比行业中位低 3.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点。"]}}