{"F": {"ts_code": "300721.SZ", "name": "怡达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.66, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2059, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 357057.9522, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.3, 20.8, 19.4, 11.3, 10.8, 0.1], "rev_series": [10.0, 14.5, 15.5, 18.1, 17.7, 16.0], "np_series": [-0.0, 1.3, 1.1, -0.4, 0.1, -1.1], "roe_series": [-0.5, 13.4, 9.2, -2.9, 0.8, -9.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.4, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 11.3, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.34, "gm_chg_2022": 10.1, "npm_median": -0.1, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.2, "fix_assets": 14.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.21, "capex_dep": 0.43, "interest_debt": 10.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 55.1, "debt_mv": 29.9, "payout": 51.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 64.4, "np_yoy": 148.9, "np_vol": 1601.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["醚系列产品", 25.0], ["醇醚系列产品", 25.0], ["环氧丙烷", 14.0], ["醋酸酯系列产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.8, "ret_prev2_year": -17.9, "ret_ytd": 70.1, "ret_pivot": 107.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": -33.5, "ret_120": 35.0, "ret_250": 42.6, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 76.4, "pos_52w": 52.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 88, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 55%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 34%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 34%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 0.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 43%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -34% / 35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "怡达股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.7个百分点。"]}}