{"F": {"ts_code": "300720.SZ", "name": "海川智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.51, "pe_ttm": 668.2492, "pb": 20.9311, "dv_ttm": 0.088, "total_mv": 1218177.3772, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.4, 57.0, 52.4, 50.8, 52.1, 49.1], "rev_series": [2.2, 2.5, 2.0, 2.3, 2.4, 2.3], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [14.5, 13.9, 7.1, 6.2, 8.1, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 52.1, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -8.0, "npm_median": 20.1, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.5, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 20.93, "capex_dep": 0.74, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 11.1, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 93.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": -17.3, "rev_yoy": 12.8, "np_yoy": -31.0, "np_vol": 31.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["计量设备", 41.0], ["合计特别调整", 7.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.0, "ret_prev2_year": 29.1, "ret_ytd": 84.7, "ret_pivot": 383.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.7, "ret_60": -15.4, "ret_120": 27.2, "ret_250": 151.6, "mdd_250": -63.4, "vol_250": 86.8, "pos_52w": 54.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 63, "hard": 15, "bondness": 49}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 668.2 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.1%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.74 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 668.2 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 152%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 87%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -15% / 27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "海川智能:PE 比行业中位高 617.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点。"]}}