{"F": {"ts_code": "300719.SZ", "name": "安达维尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.64, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2168, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 321343.0544, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.9, 46.6, 39.7, 46.5, 41.4, 38.3], "rev_series": [6.1, 4.8, 4.1, 8.5, 6.3, 6.8], "np_series": [1.0, 0.1, -0.5, 1.1, 0.1, -0.1], "roe_series": [9.4, 1.0, -4.6, 11.0, 1.3, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 41.4, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -11.2, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.0, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.22, "capex_dep": 5.89, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 94.1, "debt_ratio": 43.1, "debt_mv": 15.8, "payout": 59.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 18.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.2, "np_yoy": -108.1, "np_vol": 281.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["航空维修", 22.0], ["机载设备", 17.0], ["技术服务及其他", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.3, "ret_prev2_year": 36.5, "ret_ytd": -30.2, "ret_pivot": -11.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.1, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -34.2, "mdd_250": -50.6, "vol_250": 45.1, "pos_52w": 60.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 24, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 43%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.4%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 5.89 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 3% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "安达维尔:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}