{"F": {"ts_code": "300718.SZ", "name": "长盛轴承", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 54.86, "pe_ttm": 64.3, "pb": 9.1416, "dv_ttm": 0.7759, "total_mv": 1639102.1426, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.8, 27.7, 29.4, 35.8, 35.2, 35.0], "rev_series": [6.6, 9.8, 10.7, 11.1, 11.4, 12.7], "np_series": [1.5, 1.6, 1.0, 2.4, 2.3, 2.5], "roe_series": [11.7, 11.7, 7.5, 16.7, 14.5, 15.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.0, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 35.0, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 20.7, "roe_median": 14.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.5, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.14, "capex_dep": 1.18, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 15.8, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 50.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.8, "np_cagr3": 35.4, "rev_yoy": 22.1, "np_yoy": 1.2, "np_vol": 59.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 51.8, "fwd_pe2": 42.9, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 2.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["金属塑料聚合物自润滑卷制轴承", 16.0], ["合计特别调整", 16.0], ["双金属边界润滑卷制轴承", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 183.4, "ret_prev2_year": 71.7, "ret_ytd": -35.5, "ret_pivot": 356.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -20.3, "ret_60": -16.9, "ret_120": -24.7, "ret_250": -44.2, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 54.1, "pos_52w": 54.0}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 53, "hard": 33, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 64.3 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.0%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.0%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.3 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -20% / -17% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "长盛轴承:PE 比行业中位高 13.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}