{"F": {"ts_code": "300715.SZ", "name": "凯伦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "防水材料", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.2, "pe_ttm": 950.5534, "pb": 2.9755, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 536838.668, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.2, 30.3, 19.5, 22.0, 19.8, 21.6], "rev_series": [20.1, 25.9, 21.3, 28.0, 23.8, 24.1], "np_series": [2.8, 0.7, -1.6, 0.2, -5.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [23.3, 3.5, -6.1, 0.9, -25.6, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 21.6, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -23.7, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.9, "fix_assets": 12.0, "goodwill_ratio": 6.0, "pb_calc": 2.98, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 23.3, "debt_ebitda": 9.3, "debt_ratio": 68.7, "debt_mv": 43.4, "payout": 216.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.2, "np_yoy": -57.1, "np_vol": 986.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["防水卷材", 25.0], ["工程施工", 9.0], ["防水涂料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.7, "ret_prev2_year": -35.6, "ret_ytd": 36.0, "ret_pivot": 137.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": -36.0, "ret_120": 3.4, "ret_250": 14.4, "mdd_250": -60.9, "vol_250": 60.2, "pos_52w": 52.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 32, "bondness": 66}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 951 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 69%,有息负债 23 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -23.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 950.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -36% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "凯伦股份:PE 比行业中位高 914.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}