{"F": {"ts_code": "300711.SZ", "name": "广哈通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "其他通信设备", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20171101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.13, "pe_ttm": 61.1962, "pb": 3.3876, "dv_ttm": 1.1031, "total_mv": 508426.1168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.6, 53.3, 57.8, 49.8, 52.2, 54.8], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.5, 3.8, 4.5, 5.4, 7.4], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 1.0], "roe_series": [5.3, 7.1, 7.5, 9.0, 10.1, 12.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.0, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 53.3, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 7.2, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.1, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 10.2, "pb_calc": 3.39, "capex_dep": 2.38, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 21.3, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 52.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 24.7, "np_cagr3": 25.2, "rev_yoy": 29.6, "np_yoy": -52.1, "np_vol": 10.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["可靠通信网络", 38.0], ["泛指挥调度系统", 16.0], ["泛指挥调度业务", 16.0], ["数智化服务", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.2, "ret_prev2_year": 77.0, "ret_ytd": -21.2, "ret_pivot": 18.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.0, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": -29.4, "ret_250": -27.0, "mdd_250": -60.1, "vol_250": 55.4, "pos_52w": 52.1}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 71, "hard": 5, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 61.2 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 53.3%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 61.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 3% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "广哈通信:PE 比行业中位低 23.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点。"]}}